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The context at the beginning of the year is favourable for the markets, both equities and bonds, as it incorporates quite a favourable mix: continued disinflation, the prospect of an upcoming pause by the Fed and the expectation of a vigorous recovery in China following the end of the zero Covid strategy.

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The link between global warming and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is not in dispute and the world’s public opinion has become aware of it. CO2 accounts for three quarters of GHG emissions, although the share of methane has been increasing in recent years.

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In our view, the January sell off was “just” a correction and not the beginning of a bear market. So, even if we should not be under the illusion that the market will return to its peak level rapidly, this drop could be considered as a good entry point.

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Are we currently seeing formation of a bubble, or even a bubble peak, following the past four month’s rally? Indeed, over the period, despite the slew of bad news, the S&P 500 experienced just two slight consolidations. Could the sell-off of the past few days not be the first signs of a deeper downtrend on a 6-month horizon?

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We forecast global GDP growth of 4% on average in 2022, slightly less than the consensus (4.4%). But what counts most is nominal GDP growth as it is the main determinant of EPS growth, which should be stronger (8 to 9%).Mehr lesen