The start of monetary easing by the Fed is always a global event. Firstly, because of its impact on the global cycle. With more than 30% of world consumption (in dollars), US demand clearly steers the development of global demand.
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A look back at the summer of 2024 and the key points for the markets between now and the end of the year
A look back at the summer of 2024
Macroeconomic developments
Macro surprises deteriorated over the summer before stabilising in September. The slowdown in activity is most marked in the developed countries (United States, Europe) and China. Nevertheless, global growth remained at satisfactory levels, close to 3% (Purchasing Power Parity) in Q3 according to the August composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
Family shareholders driving companies to ‘go private’
Europe has recently seen an acceleration in the number of companies buying in their free floats and taking the decision to “go private”.
The trend to delisting may be bad for stockmarkets in the long term, but will benefit small cap investors in the short term.
The Unintended Consequences of Rigid Regulation
Over the last three years, we have faced growing regulation in the sustainable investment industry. More recently, this regulation has shifted from an emphasis on disclosure to more specific definitions and thresholds. We also see investors and sustainability certifications, such as the ISR Label, taking similar steps.
Corporate Japan embraces inflation amid economic shifts and strategic changes
The fund manager of our Japanese equity fund Taiko Japan, Rupert Kimber, recently came back from a trip to Japan. Here are his notes.Read more
Where is the world heading in the 2nd half-year to 2024?
On a global level, macro-financial conditions in the second half of the year will be dominated by the continuation of global monetary easing.
Where are Swiss small caps headed?
The underperformance of Swiss small caps compared with large caps over the last 2 years has been particularly marked (see chart below).
What if Nvidia gave renewable energies a boost?
With a jump of +151.5% in 2024, leading graphics card manufacturer Nvidia has clearly been the winning bet of the year, given that the company seems unavoidable if one is to capitalise on the AI craze.
Artificial intelligence sets the rules in the electricity market
The infrastructure sector (defined by the S&P Global Infrastructure TR USD) has had a reasonable first half of the year with a performance of +4.3% YTD. The two key sources of performance for the index were the power generation and the midstream energy sectors.Read more
European small caps starting to perform
The capitulation point in small caps may have passed… and the tide seems to be turning.