We continue to be cautious on the rest of the world ex-China this year and highlight our key themes ex-China recovery: we do believe that USD has peaked, and that more geopolitical tension as well as central bank buying will be good for precious metals. We also believe that some commodities, such as copper, are more exposed to a China recovery, and that commodities on the whole have suffered from under-investment in the past decade. For the first half of the year, we park most of our ex-China exposure in metals as we wait for better opportunities in the second half of the year. We have a few idiosyncratic theses scattered around the region, but we err on the side of caution as flows back to China can impact even solid companies elsewhere, particularly the outperformers from last year.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its repercussions remain the primary theme impacting investment decisions in the region. This consists both of the factors impacting global markets, but also, more nuanced regional only influences.
This year may be starting off well for the Chinese market, but it is not starting off well for Mr Xi. People are quietly seething at the rapid pace of reopening, both on account of the lack of psychological and medical preparedness, and also – why go to all the effort of zero-COVID for two years if herd immunity is the only solution in the end?
The energy crisis in Europe has shown how risky the dependence on Russian gas is. Renewables and green hydrogen are crucial and present extremely attractive investment opportunities. Beyond energy, from agriculture to textile, industrials and transport, key economic sectors will be affected by the path to a Net-0 economy. In this webinar held on 26 October 2022, Olivier Ken and Martina Turner provide an outlook of the sector.
