Nach einigen früheren Fehlstarts scheint der japanische Markt – von den Anlegern mehr als 30 Jahre lang vergessen – endlich bereit für einen Neuanfang. Die japanische Wirtschaft hat sich stark verändert, auch wenn der Markt dies noch nicht vollständig wahrnimmt. Außerdem hat die Tokioter Börse eine Reihe ernsthafter Initiativen ergriffen, um die Unternehmen zu ermutigen, den Shareholder Value zu maximieren. In diesem Webinar, das am 13. Juli 2023 stattfand, gibt Rupert Kimber, Fondsmanager des Quaero Capital Funds (Lux) – Taiko Japan, einen Ausblick auf die sich verändernde Landschaft des japanischen Marktes und die Chancen, in die er investiert.
In diesem Webinar vom 6. Juli 2023 spricht Nancy Hirshberg, Agrar- und Umweltexpertin und Mitglied des Expertengremiums der Fonds Accessible Clean Energy und Net Zero Emission, über die Dekarbonisierung der Lebensmittelindustrie. Martina Turner und Olivier Ken, Manager des Quaero Capital Funds (Lux) – Accessible Clean Energy und des Quaero Capital Funds (Lux) – Net Zero Emission, erklären, wie sie sich bei ihren Investitionsentscheidungen in diesem Sektor auf Nancys Expertise verlassen.
Japan has been the bete noire of many asset allocators’ portfolios for most of my 34 years managing money there, and investors continue to be underweighted from an asset allocation perspective. The throwaway line of ‘it is cheap, but the value cannot be realised’ is no longer true. Change is happening and as Mr Kikuchi the Mizuho Strategist noted, there were 5 activist proposals in 2015 and this had risen to 60 in 2022. The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) clarified what was expected to be considered by Japanese companies, instead of insisting what should be published. Cost of capital, return on invested capital (ROIC), return on equity (ROE), and other appropriate measures came out during March. All these measures are designed to make investing in Japan more attractive.
For almost 35 years, Japan has been the victim of the collapse of one of the most gigantic double bubbles in history (real estate and equities), which explains the structural underperformance of the Japanese market for 3 decades (see chart below). The Japanese market now accounts for just over 6% of world stock market capitalisation, compared with over 50% at the peak of the great bubble at the end of 1989.
The situation in Japan illustrates the extent to which a country’s path towards net zero is subject to constraints.
Reasons to be cheerful
With mounting overseas investor interest and a stock market that is trading, in yen terms, at 30-year highs, we review our optimistic December 22 Japan thesis, Sugoi Desu Ne (enclosed). The conclusion remains the same. A once in a generation transfer of wealth from corporates to shareholders remains a multi-year investment thesis with attractive valuations. Critically, this is supported by the recent intervention from the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) over corporate governance directive as the final piece of the strong investment story.
This article was first published in Le Temps of 8 May 2023.
While Japanese equities were popular with Swiss asset managers in the late 1980s, the world’s 4th largest economy has now all but disappeared from our portfolios. Perhaps the time has come to turn our sights back to the Rising Sun, because after a long stock market winter, Kabuto-Cho could be in for a bright new dawn.
After 3 years, China has finally reopened its doors to foreign travelers. Alice Wang, manager of a Chinese and ex-Japanese equity strategy at Quaero Capital, has just returned from a 3-week trip to China. In the following text, she shares her impressions, sometimes anecdotal, based on numerous meetings and visits throughout the country.
We continue to be cautious on the rest of the world ex-China this year and highlight our key themes ex-China recovery: we do believe that USD has peaked, and that more geopolitical tension as well as central bank buying will be good for precious metals. We also believe that some commodities, such as copper, are more exposed to a China recovery, and that commodities on the whole have suffered from under-investment in the past decade. For the first half of the year, we park most of our ex-China exposure in metals as we wait for better opportunities in the second half of the year. We have a few idiosyncratic theses scattered around the region, but we err on the side of caution as flows back to China can impact even solid companies elsewhere, particularly the outperformers from last year.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its repercussions remain the primary theme impacting investment decisions in the region. This consists both of the factors impacting global markets, but also, more nuanced regional only influences.